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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It often acts as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic improvement is handed the prize. In reality, it fuels an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or just the greatest surprise.

But the latest field is fundamentally unique. The list of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with recent conference champions falling away and longtime strugglers ascending together. In an normal season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this wild and entertaining season, he's up against multiple other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the projected vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack built solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide-open targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to create magic from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current is not a typical season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still